Sports Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Friday: San Francisco Giants -140

The San Francisco Giants have the rest advantage over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They had yesterday off while the Pirates finished their 4-game series at home with the Brewers on Thursday.  The Pirates lost that game to fall to 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.  They have scored 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games.

The Giants have the advantage on the mound today over the Pirates as well.  Kyle Harrison is 3-2 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 career starts over the past two seasons with 59 K's in 61 2/3 innings.

While those numbers aren't great, Harrison is much better than Pittsburgh's Quinn Priester.  He is 3-4 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in nine starts and two relief appearances in his career over the past two seasons with only 38 K's and 15 homers allowed in 54 1/3 innings.  This is more of a fade of Priester than anything.  Bet the Giants Friday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Guardians/Braves OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .285 and scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The Cleveland Guardians are much better offensively than they get credit for.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall, including hitting .305 and scoring 7.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own against Logan Allen, who has posted a 5.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 26 2/3 innings.

Chris Sale is 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts for the Braves this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  The Guardians should continue crushing southpaws tonight.

Atlanta is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games after allowing 3 runs or fewer in three consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL Friday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-131)

The Chicago White Sox are off to one of the worst starts in MLB history.  They are 3-22 this season scoring just 2.2 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game, getting outscored by 3.4 runs per game.  I'll gladly back the Tampa Bay Rays to win by two runs or more tonight.

The Rays have the rest advantage after having yesterday off while the White Sox lost their 6th consecutive game in Minnesota.  The Rays also have a massive advantage on the mound in this one.

Zach Eflin is the ace of the Rays at 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in five starts this season.  Eflin is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox.

Chris Flexen is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Flexen is 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 25 base runners in 13 1/3 innings with only 7 K's.  He is 1-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three career starts against the Rays as well.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-115)

I like the spot for the Baltimore Orioles tonight.  They have the rest advantage after having yesterday off while the Oakland A's pulled off the 3-1 upset as +240 underdogs against the New York Yankees on the road Thursday.  That makes this a letdown spot for the A's, whose bullpen is now taxed as well.

The Orioles have big advantages on the mound and at the plate tonight.  Ace Corbin Burnes is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts this season.  He'll be facing an Oakland lineup that is hitting .201 and scoring 2.8 runs per game this season, including .194 and 2.7 runs per game against right-handed starters.

Ross Stripling is 0-5 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in five starts for the A's this season.  The A's have lost all five of his starts with four of them coming by two runs or more.  Stripling will be facing a loaded Baltimore lineup that is scoring 5.7 runs per game overall this season and 6.0 runs per game against right-handed starters.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Friday.

15* Phillies/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

Two offenses that have come to life recently square off tonight against two of the most overrated starters in baseball in Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove.  These two starters are getting too much respect here with this total set at just 7.5 runs.

Nola is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA this season but he has already allowed 6 homers in 31 1/3 innings.  Nola allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-5 loss to the Padres in his last start against them.

Musgrove is 3-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 20 earned runs and 5 homers in 31 1/3 innings.  Musgrove is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last two starts against the Phillies, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 2/3 innings.

The Phillies have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last nine games overall.  The Padres have scored at least 6 runs in seven of their last 14 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -126

The New York Mets have rebounded nicely from a poor start in going 13-6 in their last 19 games overall.  They have a big advantage on the mound over the St. Louis Cardinals tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Jose Butto is 0-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in three starts for the Mets this season with 21 K's in 16 1/3 innings.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 8 hits in those 16 1/3 innings as well.

I'll gladly fade Miles Mikolas, who is 1-3 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 1/3 innings.  Mikolas is 0-2 with a 10.97 ERA in his last two starts against the Mets, allowing 13 earned runs and 3 homes in 10 2/3 innings.  Both starts came last season.  Bet the Mets Friday.

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Mets OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Mets tonight.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center tonight at Citi Field in New York.

The Mets are hot at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in 10 of their last 17 games overall.  They will do the heavy lifting for us in cashing this OVER, but the Cardinals have scored 5 runs or more in three of their last five and should do enough at the plate to get this OVER.

The Mets could cover this total on their own against Miles Mikolas, who is 1-3 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 1/3 innings.  Mikolas is 0-2 with a 10.97 ERA in his last two starts against the Mets, allowing 13 earned runs and 3 homes in 10 2/3 innings.  Both starts came last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Pacers OVER 223

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, with an elite offense and a suspect defense.  This total is too low for a game involving the Pacers, especially since they are playing at home and will control the tempo.

The Bucks have not had a problem scoring and won't mind getting up and down with the Pacers.  The Bucks have a deep bench and missing Giannis is much more detrimental to them defensively than it is offensively.  The Bucks will get their tonight as well.

Nine of the last 10 totals between the Pacers and Bucks have been set at 230 or higher.  The lone exception was the 223.5-point total in Game 2, which sailed OVER with 233 combined points.  The Pacers and Bucks have combined for 233 or more points in 11 of their last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 223-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Guardians/Braves OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .284 and scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The Cleveland Guardians are much better offensively than they get credit for.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall and 5.4 runs per game on the road.

This is a very low total for these two potent offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers.  Tanner Bibee is 2-0 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts for the Guardians this season.  Charlie Morton is 2-0 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in four starts for the Braves.

The OVER is 24-9 in Morton's last 33 starts in the first half of the season.  He is a notorious slow starter.  Both teams should have their way at the plate today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball this season.  They are 4-22 this season while scoring 2.5 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game, getting outscored by 3.1 runs per game.  After a shocking win yesterday in Game 1 over the Rays, I expect them to get back to being the terrible team they are today.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound.  Aaron Civale is 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in five starts for the Rays this season.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his 10 career starts against the White Sox.

Jonathan Cannon is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in two starts for the White Sox this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 14 base runners in 8 2/3 innings to the Twins and Royals.

Chicago is 0-15 after losing four of its last five games this season and getting outscored by 4.6 runs per game in this spot.  Civale's teams are 22-3 in his last 25 starts against bad teams that are outscored by one or more runs per game on the season and winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Orioles OVER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the A's and Orioles this afternoon.  There are expected to be 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Baltimore this afternoon.

The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own.  They'll tee off on JP Sears, who has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.

Cole Irvin is vulnerable for the Orioles.  he is 1-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in two home starts.  Irvin has a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against Oakland.

Baltimore is 10-2 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Oakland is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games against excellent power teams that average 1.5 or more homers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+122)

The Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory today after getting upset as -275 favorites to the A's in Game 1.  They came into this series with a rest advantage over the A's, and that rest advantage will pay dividends today.  The A's have most of their top bullpen arms unavailable after needing them to upset the Yankees and Orioles in consecutive days Thursday and Friday.

Cole Irvin fired 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Royals in his last start.  Irvin allowed just one run in 5 innings of a 7-2 victory in his last start against the A's.  He'll be opposed by JP Sears, who has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.  The A's lost those two games by 11 and 4 runs.

The Orioles are 8-0 in Irvin's last eight starts against an AL team slugging .410 or worse and winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Thunder/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans were knocked out of the playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the play-in round last year.  Now they are down 2-0 in this series after losing the first two games on the road.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 when they return home today, and I expect them to get the job done with one of their best efforts of the season.

I think the 94-92 loss in Game 1 was hard to recover from because they had every chance to win.  The Thunder took advantage and crushed the Pelicans 124-92 in Game 2.  However, the Thunder shot 59% as a team and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range in Game 2.  They are due some negative shooting regression.

The Pelicans are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3 in Game 1, and 7-of-26 (26.9%) from 3 in Game 2.  Role players usually play much better at home because they are a lot more comfortable.  They weren't comfortable in those two road games in a hostile crowd in OKC.

The Pelicans were a tired team coming into this series as they were life and death at the end of the season trying to win games to get out of the play-in.  Then they had two play-in games.  But they have now had two days off in between games for a second consecutive game and this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  That's another reason I think they are primed for a big effort because they are fresh.  Bet the Pelicans in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Cavaliers/Magic TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Orlando -2

The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-11 SU & 28-13 ATS at home this season.  After shooting terribly in Cleveland the first two games, they shot 51.1% and won 121-83 at home in Game 3.

I don't expect it to come as easily for the Magic at home in Game 4, but I do expect them to get another win and cover to even this series.  Donovan Mitchell got hobbled yet again in Game 3 and wasn't himself, and even though he will play in Game 4 he isn't anywhere near 100%.  The Cavaliers are vulnerable when that's the case.

The Cavaliers are 0-6 SU on the road in the playoffs under current head coach JB Bickerstaff.  The Magic are 20-7 ATS as home favorites this season.  Cleveland is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Magic in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Denver -3

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead team walking.  They just lost their 11th consecutive game to the Denver Nuggets in this head-to-head series in a must-win Game 3.  That's three blown halftime leads by the Lakers in three games in this series.

The Lakers are now completely demoralized and won't show up for Game 4.  Darvin Ham is making zero halftime adjustments and the Nuggets are making all the right moves after intermission.  Ham is a dead man walking.

The Lakers go too much iso ball in the 2H, and both Anthony Davis and LeBron James have had to play too many minutes because they are getting zero help.  They will once again run out of gas in the 2H, especially with only one day in between Games 3 and 4.  This series is over.  Bet the Nuggets in Game 4 Saturday.